President Donald Trump is now in a critical period for his reelection bid in terms of how consumers view the health of the economy.
While many analysts tend to rely on the latest polling data to gauge reelection odds, Wall Street looks at consumer confidence indicators.
Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump points at delegates after his acceptance speech during the 2016 Republican National Convention July 21, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio.'s chance at reelection is still over a year away, but he has entered a critical economic period that many investors look at when gauging the odds of a second term.
"Another variation on the theme is the unemployment rate," he added. "The level of unemployment during the spring before a presidential election has historically been a pretty good indicator for the prospects of an incumbent President being re-elected." Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, for example, saw consumer confidence fall ahead of their failed reelection bids:
"What happens before recession every time in a very convincing pattern is that first consumers start to feel bad about the future. They say 'the future looks worse than how I feel about the present.' And that started a while ago now, where the view of the future was much grimmer than the view of today," Gundlach said.
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