MORE: In Arizona, the presidential race stands at 47%-49% among registered voters and 49%-48% among likely voters.
Indeed, Trump has majority approval in both states for his handling of the economy -- 54% among registered voters in Florida and 57% in Arizona. That compares with his approval overall, 47% in both states, and for handling the coronavirus outbreak, 45% in both.
Economy ratings aren't particularly robust; fewer than half in both states, 46% in Florida and 42% in Arizona, rate it positively. The political argument is more about the level of Trump's responsibility for the downturn, and, particularly, who's best suited to move ahead. The question is the same for the pandemic response; as things stand, 57% in both states are worried about catching the coronavirus.
Both states typically do have high levels of early and absentee voting. The questions: Can Biden's camp encourage a high enough level of pre-Election Day turnout this year? Will pandemic conditions be such that Trump voters feel adequately secure to vote in person on Election Day? Again, the outcome may hinge on the answers.
Kelly -- like Biden -- is ahead by a wide margin among those who identify the coronavirus outbreak, health care or the equal treatment of racial groups as the most important issue in their vote. Indeed, the Senate race looks much like an analog of the presidential contest. Ninety-four percent of Biden supporters favor Kelly; 93% of Trump's back McSally.In this Feb. 2019 file photo, former astronaut Mark Kelly speaks during his senate campaign kickoff event in Tucson, Ariz.
Biden is comparatively weak in Florida among college-educated white women. A mainstay for him elsewhere, he wins just 53% in this group, compared with 61% in Arizona, and, last week, two-thirds in Wisconsin and three-quarters in Minnesota. That said, state context is important: Trump won college-educated white women in Florida by a broad 60%-37% four years ago.
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