U.S. intelligence leak forces Ukraine to alter Spring battle plans against Russia

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U.S. intelligence leak forces Ukraine to alter Spring battle plans against Russia
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The Ukrainian government's reluctance to share some of its most sensitive information about its war plans with the United States now appears well-justified in light of a last week's leak of classified U.S. intelligence. An unnamed adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN yesterday that Kyiv had already altered a number of battleplans in response to the intelligence breach, which has been called the worst since Edward Snowden's disclosures about American surveillance programs in 2013.

Ukrainian soldiers ride atop an APC on the frontline in Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Saturday, April 8, 2023. The Ukrainian government's reluctance to share some of its most sensitive information about its war plans with the United States now appears well-justified in light of a last week's leak of classified U.S. intelligence.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the breach occurred just as Ukraine’s military was preparing to launch a long-anticipated spring counteroffensive designed to claw back more terrain from the Russian occupiers, who currently control 18% of the country. Ukrainian forces, however, withstood Russia’s grueling winter campaign to freeze and black-out the country by targeting its electricity network and energy infrastructure. That Russian campaign was devised by its former operational commander in Ukraine, Gen. Sergey Surovikin. The documents detail a typical engagement between Ukrainian air defense units and wave of Russia’s Iranian supplied “Shahid-136” suicide drones on Feb.

Regardless of the creative workaround solutions to keep Ukraine’s war machine chugging along, the leaked documents lay out the prospects for the coming months in stark terms. The U.S. assessed that Ukraine will have completely expended its stockpile of medium range surface-to-air missile systems by mid-May, leaving the Ukrainian military at a severe disadvantage in protecting its troops on the frontline.

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