U.S. employment growth likely slowed significantly in July amid a resurgence in new COVID-19 infections
WASHINGTON - , which would provide the clearest evidence yet that the economy’s recovery from the recession caused by the pandemic was faltering.
A $600 weekly unemployment benefit supplement expired last Friday, while thousands of businesses have burned through loans offered by the government to help with wages. According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 1.58 million jobs in July, which would be a sharp step-down from the record 4.8 million in June. That would leave payrolls 13.1 million below their pre-pandemic level. Employment peaked at 152.5 million in February.
Data from Homebase, a payroll scheduling and tracking company, showed a slowdown and modest reversal in employment since mid-June. The Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey suggested at least 6 million job losses from mid-June to the week ending July 18, when the government surveyed employers and households for last month’s employment report.
Economists estimate the Paycheck Protection Program that gave businesses loans that can be partially forgiven if used for employee pay saved around 1.3 million jobs at its peak. The extra $600 weekly unemployment checks made up 20% of personal income and helped to boost consumer spending in May and June.
The unemployment rate is expected to have dropped to 10.5% from 11.1% in June. But the measurement of the jobless rate has been biased downward by people misclassifying themselves as being “employed but absent from work.” At least 31.3 million people were receiving unemployment checks in mid-July.
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