U.S. job growth likely remained robust in July amid shifts in seasonal employment at schools caused by the pandemic, which could mask some softening in underlying labor market conditions as the boost from fiscal stimulus and the economy's reopening fades.
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday could show nonfarm payrolls surging by at least 1 million last month because of the so-called seasonal adjustment factors, which are also seen inflating employment at auto assembly plants and in the leisure and hospitality sector.
"The seasonal adjustment factors are extremely favorable," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "The job market has lost some momentum, reflecting the fading effects from the reopening, along with less impulse from fiscal stimulus." Though the labor market data has remained positive there are signs the pace of job growth has slowed relative to June. The ADP employment report on Wednesday showed the smallest private payrolls gain in five months in July. Data from Homebase, a payroll scheduling and tracking company, showed its employees working index rose moderately in July from June.
COVID-19 infections are surging across the country, driven by the Delta variant of the coronavirus. While major disruptions to economic activity are not expected, with nearly half of the population fully vaccinated, spiraling cases could keep workers at home and hamper hiring. Republicans and business groups have blamed enhanced unemployment benefits, including a $300 weekly check from the federal government, for the labor crunch. While more than 20 states led by Republican governors have ended these federal benefits before their Sept. 6 expiration, there has been little evidence that the terminations boosted hiring.
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