In brokering the surrender of entire Afghan army divisions over the past week, the Taliban took control of billions worth of American-made weapons and equipment, including small arms, Humvees, pickup trucks, aircraft and drones.
In the chaos of the moment, however, it’s unclear to U.S. officials how much equipment the Taliban has seized and how much sits unattended on bases and small combat outposts across the country. That uncertainty over the status of a massive arsenal is sparking fears of a regional arms bazaar that could be a boon to terrorist groups and insurgents.
“I have full confidence that some of this equipment is going to end up in the hands of al Qaeda and other bad actors, it's inevitable,” said Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at The Soufan Group. “This is not going to just end with the Taliban.” “What happens in these situations is that arms brokers will make themselves known [and] offer cash or valuable goods in exchange for those kinds of weapons,” Lamb said.
More recently, in a three-year period between 2017 and 2019, the U.S. shipped another 4,700 Humvees, 20,000 hand grenades and thousands of small munitions and grenade launchers, according to a 2020 Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction report. She added there's “a high probability” that some abandoned equipment has already fallen into the hands of al Qaeda and ISIS fighters, “given the chaotic situation on the ground and complex local interlinkages between these groups.”
Much of the more sophisticated equipment such as aircraft and communications gear will likely become inoperable within months, however. Even the Afghan army and air force couldn’t maintain their aircraft and most of their vehicle fleets without thousands of foreign contractors on hand to do the work.
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