*U.S. SUMMER STOCK RALLY AT RISK AS SEPTEMBER LOOMS - 🇺🇸 🇺🇸
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segarfrom its June lows is stumbling as it runs into what has historically been the toughest month for the U.S. stock market, sparking nerves among some fund managers of a broad sell-off in September.
But as investors and traders return from summer holidays, some are nervous about a bumpier ride in September, due to seasonal concerns and nervousness about the Fed's pace of hikes and their economic impact. September typically is a down month for the stock market because fund managers tend to sell underperforming positions as the end of the third quarter approaches, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac.
September has been the worst month for the S&P 500 since 1945, with the index advancing only 44% of the time, the least of any month, according to CFRA data. The S&P 500 has posted an average loss of 0.6% in September, the worst for any month. Nearly half of market participants now expect the Fed funds rate to end the year above 3.7% by the end of the year, up from 40% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. [/FEDWATCH] The fed funds rate is currently between 2.25 and 2.5%.
"While we might end up retesting the June low, history says that we will not set a new low," he said.
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