U-Shape? V-Shape? Recovery Shapes Explained And What They Mean For America’s Economy

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U-Shape? V-Shape? Recovery Shapes Explained And What They Mean For America’s Economy
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Plus, why economists don’t always agree.

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Here are the most common economic recovery shapes and what they mean. While economic growth can be measured by any number of metrics—like the stock market or employment rates for example—we’ll focus on GDP. A V-shaped recovery means that the economy bounces back quickly to its baseline before the crisis, with no hiccups along the way. Growth continues at the same rate as before.

In a W-shaped recession, also called a double dip, the economy moves beyond a recession into a period of recovery before falling back down again into another recession. The initial recovery is sometimes known as a bear market rally. A variant of this is a square root-shaped recession where growth recovers but then plateaus before reaching pre-crisis levels. Lowenstein says this is his base case scenario.

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