Josh Emmett has been one of the most consistent fighters in the UFC since he signed with the promotion and made his debut in 2016. He entered the promotion as a lightweight with a 9-0 mark. He dropped to featherweight after one bout, where he's remained since.
. And while it may be designed as a coming out party of sorts for Topuria, who is 13-0 with 12 finishes, Emmett is no easy guy to finish.
But there was plenty of controversy surrounding his loss to Stephens. He suffered facial fractures during the finishing sequences, when there appeared to be both an illegal knee to the head of a downed opponent as well as several illegal elbows. That leads me to look at the over-under, which for this fight is 2.5 rounds. Under is the favorite, at -220, which over 2.5 rounds being a +180 underdog. I have great respect for Topuria and think he's a burgeoning star. He'll probably win and I'll swallow hard and lay the -345 on him to take it. But I think this will be a long fight so I'll take the +180 and bet it goes over 2.5 rounds.
I was surprised that Ribas was favored by nearly 2-1, and had my own line set much lower. Thus, while I think Ribas will probably sneak out the win, I think there is very good value by playing Barber as a strong +160 underdog. I'll also lay the -195 and bet the fight goes over 2.5 rounds. Barber hasn't finished a fight since beating Robertson in 2019, while Ribas hasn't had a finish since submitting Paige VanZant on July 12, 2020.
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