Uh-oh: Investors predict ‘Dow 50,000’ — in just five years, writes BrettArends (OPINION)
What else can explain the results of a new survey, which found that, among a sample of 1,500 people here in the U.S. who manage their portfolios, the average person expected the stock market to generate sky-high returns of 15.4% a year over the next five years?
As the overwhelming bulk of U.S. investors’ stock investments are here at home, we have to assume they are expecting these heroic returns from U.S. stocks.For those of us saving for our retirement, this is precisely the sort of thing that affects us. After all, if we think the stock market might plausibly generate sky-high returns over the next five years, it’s a good reason to take on plenty of “risk.” If I thought this was a realistic outcome I’d basically want to be almost entirely in stocks.
Never mind that the S&P 500 is now trading at 25 times 2021 per-share earnings, 33 times the average earnings of the last 10 years, and somewhere between 1.5 and 2 times the replacement cost of assets, known to economists as Tobin’s q.
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