We are seeing a set of probes and feints to confuse the Russians while identifying the most likely targets for the eventual deployment, Western analysts believe 🔎 Analysis by KieronMonks
What we are seeing now, as Ukraine’s push to recapture occupied territory rumbles into gear, is a set of probes and feints, Western analysts believe, to confuse the enemy while identifying the most likely targets for the eventual deployment of elite units and heavy armour.
Dr Kristian Gustafson, a military intelligence specialist at Brunel University, expects to see a major contrast with the Russian approach. “Operational level objectives are going to be probably enemy force-focused rather than ground-focused,” He says. “The Ukrainians are not necessarily trying to capture a particular piece of ground, although they may do, but probably aim to surround and defeat some major Russian formations.
“Because if they do that, and if there are pictures of them capturing a general in his headquarters and thousands of troops, that’s going to be absolutely shattering for the Russians.”, a key node of Russian military assets and logistics.On the Russian side, there is little obvious alarm at this stage. Military correspondents report minor losses of territory but refer to a “turkey shoot” of Ukrainian forces advancing over open ground and gleefully post images of burned-out Western tanks.
“The Ukrainians appear to be using combined arms,” according to the retired US Army Colonel Mark Cancian, now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank, citing images that show “engineers, infantry, and tanks together”.
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