For Western observers, it’s important to keep this big picture in mind when following Ukraine’s grueling fight.
has grown gloomier in recent weeks on the back of fragmentary journalistic accounts from the front and reported intelligence assessments from Western analysts. The news has not been great. The fight against Russia has proved to be bloody and slow — a very hard slog.in a linear fashion. Defenders can hold for a long time and then suddenly break, allowing an attacker to make rapid gains before the defense solidifies further to the rear.
Ukraine has none of the advantages the United States had in those operations. In both Iraq-related cases, coalition forces benefited from air supremacy, while Ukrainian aircraft cannot operate over Russian lines and cannot prevent Russian aircraft and helicopters from hitting their own advancing troops. And Ukraine has been given too few armored breaching systems.
The Russians have also fought much better than the Iraqis did — and better than many analysts expected given Russia’s unimpressive performance until then in the war. Russian forces have prepared extensive defenses in depth, consisting of wide, deep belts of skillfully laid mines, antitank ditches and other obstacles. Soldiers equipped with drones are directing substantial artillery fire against any Ukrainian units that try to get through.
, in which its troops initially fall back and then counterattack once the Ukrainian forces take losses and begin to tire.All of these factors make the Ukrainian counteroffensive exceedingly hard. But as one of us had occasion to observe during the tough early months of the 2007 surge in Iraq, hard is not hopeless.
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