OPINION | 'Even if the insurrection was short-lived, as appears to be the case as of this writing, its impact will be felt for a long, long time,' writes David Rothkopf.
asserted that “for a long time Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government” but that now its failings were becoming clear. “Russia’s weakness is obvious. Full-scale weakness.”
While the situation in Russia is still fluid—we don’t know the specifics of the deal Prigozhin reached or how either side in the dispute will behave in the days ahead—there is nonetheless no question that it weakened Russia’s position in Ukraine in manifold ways.prefaced his insurrection by directly contradicting the rationale Putin gave for his invasion of Ukraine. The Wagner Group, a significant force for the Russians, pulled out of that country.
Russia’s high military command is under attack and it is, as of now, what changes may take place and how those will be received within the armed forces and across Russia. The result seems likely to be a further downturn in morale among Russian troops whose mood had already been thought to have hit rock bottom.was going well. And none of what happened will strengthen Russia’s position in Ukraine or in the world.
The odds against Prigozhin unseating Putin via this insurrection were always long however swift his early gains may have been. Further, even if Putin survives this for now as it appears he has, the success Prigozhin has enjoyed to date has further punctured the illusion of Putin’s strength and preeminence within Russia. Already paranoid, he will have to sleep with one eye open every night from now on unsure from where the next attack on him might come.
In the hours and days ahead the world will be watching to see whether the deal that was reportedly struck holds and what it entails. What will become of Russia’s military leadership? Will it change? How will it react to this harsh repudiation of its strategies and tactics in Ukraine? What will become of Prigozhin and Wagner? Close attention will be paid to whether other voices critical of Putin may emerge.
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