Inflation remains the number one topic for investors. Understanding what is happening to inflation is the key to forecasting what central banks will do, and hence how bonds and equities will perform.
Inflation remains the number one topic for investors. Understanding what is happening to inflation is the key to forecasting what central banks will do, and hence how bonds and equities will perform. But we do not all look at inflation in the same way and right now that makes a big difference to the conclusions drawn about the economy, monetary policy and markets. National statisticians publish data on consumer prices at a monthly frequency. That much is common.
In Europe, when we talk about inflation, we compare how prices have changed over the past year, and for a very simple reason. Many prices exhibit a clear seasonal pattern which can obscure the underlying rate of inflation that we are interested in. It does not make much sense to say we start each year in deflation just because there are always sales after Christmas and the prices of many items tend to fall between December and January. Comparisons against a year ago circumvent this problem. However, they do so at a cos
Inflation Investors Forecasting Central Banks Bonds Equities
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