How the US and Russia have avoided escalation after the mid-air collision over the Black Sea on Tuesday that resulted in the loss of a US drone
Such mechanisms serve to cool domestic demands for escalatory steps to avoid looking weak in the wake of incidents such as the drone crash, he added.
But the conventions are likely to be tested further as the US continues to supply weapons and intelligence to Ukraine, in a war that Russian President Vladimir Putin describes as “existential”, and increases its presence in the region. The risk of direct clashes is increasing for several reasons, says Ralph Clem, a former US Air Force General.
“Among other things, Nato ramped up its intelligence collection flights over the Black Sea and along Nato’s eastern flank to surveil Russian military ops,” he told“This, combined with the evidence of Russian incompetence in conducting aerial encounters, made this sort of incident inevitable.” Few analysts believe that the loss of a drone could prompt a major escalation. But a clash between Russian and Nato pilots, such as an incident last September when a Russian jet“What keeps me up at night is a meeting with manned aircraft gone wrong,” says Mr Clem.
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