US GDP plunged by a record 33% in the 2nd quarter as coronavirus lockdowns raged
Many states have had to pause or rollback reopening plans to deal with new coronavirus cases, weighing on economic activity. Unemployment remains high, and consumer sentiment has slumped recently due to the new surge in cases.
While stark, the historic GDP figures may appear worse than they actually are, because they are reported as an annualized rate. The forecast GDP drop of 35% on an annualized basis actually means that the economy was about 10% smaller in the second quarter from the first months of the year. Still, the economy shrinking 10% in one quarter is also a record slump. And, Thursday's figure is the first of three estimates, meaning that it could be revised later to reflect an even sharper contraction.
Going forward, economists expect that economic activity has picked up as states reopened. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that the economy will grow at an 18% annualized rate in the third quarter. Even though that's a record positive jump, it would still leave GDP far below pre-pandemic levels.
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