'If the current tensions in the Middle East do benefit China, it will be by forcing Beijing to accept the inevitable and act as a global power.' Opinion | RupertStone83
However, spiralling instability in the Middle East posesfor Beijing. China is the world’s number 1 oil importer and receives much of its energy from the region. A conflict would undermine China’s energy security, while also endangering the million or so Chinese expatriates living there.
That is partly because the US is far more critical to China than Iran. China might be Iran’s foremost trading partner, but their economic ties pale in comparison to those between China and America. If Beijing stood up for Tehran, it might jeopardise the phase 1 trade deal it is about to finalise with Washington.
So, China is unlikely to deepen its ties with Iran as a result of current tensions. Reports of a vast $400 billion Chinese investment package last year are highly implausible, given theBeijing might exploit the woeful state of US-Iraqi ties to consolidate its foothold in Baghdad. Washington is currently pushing back against Iraq’s decision to expel American troops.
Furthermore, in December last year, it participated in a joint naval drill with Russia and Iran, the first of its kind. But it would be wrong to see this as evidence of a nascent anti-western security alliance. Shortly beforehand, Beijing conducted a naval exercise with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s nemesis.. It maintains good ties with Iran, on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel, on the other.
Beijing should, therefore, build on its favourable diplomatic situation to play a more active role in regional politics. That China can be a constructive partner was shown by its help negotiating the JCPOA. Eventually, Beijing will also have to consider a security presence in the Gulf to ensure freedom of navigation and protect its energy supplies.
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