US: ISM signaling theme preceding recession – Wells Fargo – by MSalordFX Manufacturing UnitedStates Banks
sector demonstrate resilience to the fastest rate hikes in a generation, the message from today's ISM manufacturing index is that the factory sector is reeling.“The ISM manufacturing report for March was a dud. Not only was the headline index at its lowest since 2020, every sub-component was below the breakeven 50 for the first time since 2009. All but two were lower versus the prior month.
“We expect tighter financial conditions and growing uncertainty around recession are weighing on firms' desires to invest. The recent stress in the banking sector led to a sharp tightening in financial conditions, and we expect banks will tighten lending standards as a result. Manufacturing activity was slowing before the recent stress, and we expect tighter conditions will contribute further to that slowdown in investment spending.
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