Grain prices have been in freefall of late as investors bet on a resurgence of supply from the U.S., Russia and Ukraine, but veteran strategist David Roche is not convinced.
Wheat prices are down around 29% year-to-date and at their lowest since September 2020, with short positions — bets on prices to fall — rising to a three-month high.
A combine operator climbs aboard a combine as they harvest wheat at a farm near Kramatorsk, in Donetsk region on August 4, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Grain prices have been in freefall of late as investors bet on a resurgence of supply from the U.S., Russia and Ukraine — but veteran strategist David Roche disagrees.
The price falls were heightened by the U.S. Department of Agriculture reporting higher production and stockpiles than analysts had expected. The data compounded downward price pressures coming from signs that Ukraine, a key grain producer, is managing to find alternative export routes despite Russian attacks on its ports.
This, along with Russian volatility and El Nino, are "three factors which I think will disrupt the supply side" of grain markets, Roche said.
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