The legislative contests will set the stage for 2024.
A polling station volunteer cleans a voting booth at a polling station in Arlington, Va., on June 20. LEESBURG, Va. — A proven way to get voters to the polls is to scare the daylights out of them. In the run-up to November’s elections for Virginia’s state legislature, Republicans and Democrats are doing a bang-up job spreading alarm, on the airways and everywhere else. The outcome hangs on which issue frightens voters the most.
Both parties will be intensely watching Virginia for clues about 2024’s political atmosphere, and the margins are tight. Democrats hold a 22-18 seat majority in the state Senate while Republicans have a 52-48 margin in the House of Delegates. Larry Sabato, director of University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, sees only three to five races as competitive in the Senate and five to eight in the House.
Education is playing out in a less ideological way this year — many voters, says Perry, are primarily worried about teachers leaving the profession. Youngkin’s stress this year is on his proposal prohibiting abortion after the first 15 weeks of pregnancy . He thinks it offers his party nationwide a “reasonable” compromise.
The state’s political cognoscenti currently see the likeliest outcome as stasis: Democrats keep the Senate, Republicans the House. But the messiness of politics is inconsistent with the stable conditions laboratory experiments require, and recent episodes could upend the balance in close races between now and Nov. 7.
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