Wild swings in stocks and a sharp run-up in government bond yields are putting the spotlight on next week’s U.S. inflation data, as investors brace for more volatility across assets.
A turbulent week in markets ended with a surge in Treasury yields to their highest level in more than two years after surprisingly strong U.S. jobs data stoked expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve.
Robust data on inflation – which hit its highest annual level in nearly four decades in December – could further bolster the case for a more aggressive Fed and extend the climb in yields, dulling the allure of an equity market struggling to rebound from last month’s tumble.Due out on Thursday, the U.S. consumer price index for January is expected to have risen 0.5%, culminating in an annual rise of 7.3%, which would be the largest such increase since 1982, according to a Reuters poll.
“We could potentially get a very difficult number to digest next week on the inflation front and that has the potential to cut the markets off at the knees,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which moves inversely to prices, has climbed about 40 basis points in 2022 to over 1.9% as investors factor in at least five rate increases from the Fed this year.
The climb has weighed on equities overall while contributing to steep declines in the shares of many tech and growth stocks, whose valuations rely on future profits that are discounted more steeply as bond yields rise. The benchmark S&P 500
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