With GoldmanSachs predicting recorded-music revenue will reach $75 billion in 2030, investors want in.
, and its share price rose 39% over the next two days. The company itself didn't raise any money — the shares were sold by's conglomerate, Access Industries — but it's now worth $18.3 billion based on its $31.05 per share closing price on June 10.
At the time, the hot new technology was ringtones, and global recorded-music revenue was still plummeting — it declined 27.8% from $20.5 billion in 2004 to $14.8 billion in 2011, when Blavatnik's Access bought Warner. Since then, global recorded-music revenue has risen 36.5% to $20.3 billion, while Warner's value has risen 455%. The biggest change may have been optimism about the future of streaming.
Other investors might feel Warner's potential is limited because it's so tightly controlled , and some institutional investors aren't interested in companies where they can't influence management. While Access cashed out 15% of its equity and the IPO didn't raise money for Warner,"that might be a minor quibble," not a red flag, says, a longtime music industry analyst who runs Vogel Capital Management.
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