The Moody's model had called every presidential race correctly since 1980 — until Trump's 2016 victory. Now, it's predicting his reelection.
But according to a historically accurate model maintained by research firm Moody’s Analytics, he remains a strong favorite to win a second term based on economic trends in key swing states. As Democrats gather on stage in Ohio on Tuesday night for their fourth debate, the Moody’s model suggests they’ll need to take aim at Trump’s record on the economy to overcome his advantage.
Another Moody’s model, focused mainly on the stock market, finds Trump would win with 298 electoral votes. A third, which focuses on state-specific unemployment rates, finds Trump would win with 332 electoral votes. In an average of its three models, Trump would also win with 332 electoral votes to 206 for the Democratic nominee.The key for Democrats to overcome Trump’s advantages on the economy: generating massive turnout.
Further trade war damage hitting employment in those states would be the biggest risk for Trump, which could help explain why Trump appears eager to at least call a truce in his bruising trade battle with China.
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