Public spaces are re-opening across the U.S. TIME built a simulation to test whether social distancing can actually keep COVID-19 at bay.
The emergence we see here suggests that at least a modest amount of interaction inside 6 feet is inevitable as public spaces reopen. Even when limiting the crowd to only 200 people and assuming 100% those beachgoers try to cooperate, the model suggests it’s basically assured that people get too close to each other.
And that’s a highly ideal scenario, in which the crowd size remains unrealistically small and improbably obedient. As soon as you start adding more people or introducing even a small percentage of negligent actors, the number of collisions skyrockets. For 1,000 beachgoers at 75% compliance, there are typically more than 20,000 such run-ins over the 90 minutes it takes for all of them to reach the beach.
As desperate as the U.S. is for some form of normalcy over the warm summer months, every model we ran suggests that, without general acceptance of a new reality in which public spaces will need to be less populated, the health risks could be significant., even as new COVID-19 infections fall, Americans must reconsider the outdoors as an exhaustible resource that must be rationed. As this experiment tentatively indicates, even a fairly large amount of beachfront—4.4 acres is the equivalent of 3.
While there are several JavaScript libraries that have implemented some degree of agent-based-modeling, this simulation was written from scratch to accommodate the specific use-case. In each step , every agent seeks to move approximately 20 feet toward their desired destination—either the water or an available spot on the sand.
The simulation runs at about 40 times faster than reality and ends after either an hour or when every prospective person has reach the beach or water.
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