'We're in for a bad and rocky ride:' Ex-WHO doctor who helped eradicate smallpox predicts COVID-19 turmoil for years

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'We're in for a bad and rocky ride:' Ex-WHO doctor who helped eradicate smallpox predicts COVID-19 turmoil for years
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'We will still be chasing the virus four years from now. But it won’t be like (today),' Dr. Larry Brilliant, a California epidemiologist, told the USA TODAY Editorial Board on Monday.

estimated COVID-19 cases ranged from six to 24 times higher than official counts. The large federal study relied on antibody testing data in 10 cities to gauge whether individuals previously were infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Antibody tests are different than diagnostic tests, which detect whether someone is currently infected.

Brilliant said if about 10% of U.S. residents have been infected so far, there's a long road ahead until the population reaches herd immunity and new transmissions burn out. By his estimate, there are"300 million more customers for this disease who have not bought it yet." The best way to halt the virus' march to herd immunity is for 50 states to adopt a uniform approach of masks, social distancing, hand-washing and limiting crowded indoor places such as bars and restaurants.He said combining those actions in a coordinated way would be as effective without the need for a total shutdown, which would create "political and emotional and economic hell if we close everything down in the same way we did before.

He wants the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to take a stronger role in urging coordinate action to slow the virus. In the absence of federal leadership, governors could coordinate and act. Brilliant said federal health officials have navigated past outbreaks of Ebola, Zika and the swine flu pandemic in 2009-2010, which caused far fewer deaths than COVID.

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