“This is one of the most active seasonal forecasts that NOAA has produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks.'
This"could be one of the more active seasons in the historical record," said lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell of the Climate Prediction Center said during a media teleconference Thursday.
Bell said that atmospheric and oceanic conditions such as a potential La Niña in the Pacific, weak wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic, and a strong West African monsoon all combine to make hurricanes more likely.An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September. The most active year on record was 2005, when 28 named storms formed.
Of the predicted seven to 11 hurricanes, three to six could be major, packing wind speeds of 111 mph or higher. That's Categories 3 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.If predictions hold true, it will be a record fifth-consecutive year of above-normal activity. That would beat the previous four-year streak set from 1998 to 2001.
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