We’re More at Risk of Nuclear War With Russia Than We Think

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We’re More at Risk of Nuclear War With Russia Than We Think
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Analysis: U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle need to start addressing the danger of nuclear war with Russia

In the 1950s and 1960s, Americans genuinely and rightly feared the prospect of nuclear war with the Soviet Union. School children regularly participated in air raid drills. Federal, state and local governments prepared for operations in the event of nuclear emergency. More than a few worried citizens built backyard bomb shelters and stockpiled provisions.

In my more than 25 years of government experience working on Russia matters, I’ve seen that three misguided assumptions underlie how the United States got to this point. In fact, cyber technologies, artificial intelligence, advanced hypersonic weapons delivery systems and anti-satellite weaponry are making the U.S.-Russian shadow war much more complex and dangerous than the old Cold War competition. They are blurring traditional lines between espionage and warfare, entangling nuclear and conventional weaponry, and erasing old distinctions between offensive and defensive operations.

But, when dealing with states that believe they are under some form of assault, focusing on deterrence can be counterproductive. Rather than averting aggression by demonstrating the will to fight back, America might be unintentionally increasing the odds of a war. To a great degree, this is the situation the United States already faces. Years of enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and perceived U.S.

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