Despite the fact that various underlying factors suggest a trend might be expected, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change feels that predictions of such a trend cannot be made with any confidence
TORNADOES CAN, individually, be unpredictable to the point of caprice. In general, though, their behaviour follows particular rules. They spawn in places where big slabs of cold air can move in on top of warmer air below on a large scale, with strong winds headed in different directions at different altitudes. The Great Plains of the United States, where cold air from the Rockies can pour down over warm air from the Gulf of Mexico, are pretty much the best place in the world for this to happen.
One result of the carnage has been a rush to say whether there is another predictability at play: that provided by a warming world. It is certainly true that, in the area hit by the tornadoes as in most of the rest of the country, this has been a remarkably warm autumn. The Gulf of Mexico was far warmer than usual for the time of year in both October and November.
Other aspects of the data do show trends—but here, too, a direct link to climate change is missing. Tornado seasons are becoming more variable, both from year to year and day by day within a given year. Given that the long-term averages are staying the same, this means more pronounced extremes of activity and inactivity both day to day and year to year.
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