As things stand, both the Fed and the European Central Bank seem determined to bring inflation down to their target rates, even if that takes a while and could entail a recession
. That has led to some, including the World Bank, to warn of an old foe: “stagflation”. The portmanteau, a combination of stagnation and inflation, was popularised in the 1970s by Paul Samuelson, a Nobel economics laureate. In America it brings memories of a time when inflation was high, the economy struggled through two recessions and unemployment remained elevated.
Today in America and Europe, unemployment is low and inflation high, suggesting that one indicator of stagflation, high unemployment, is missing. And as in some previous inflationary episodes, there is still a good chance that once the current surge in prices has dissipated, inflation rates will come back to normal, though at a higher overall price level than previously expected.
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