.IChotiner speaks with Nataliya Gumenyuk, a journalist in Kyiv, about how Ukrainians are preparing for a possible invasion, why Ukrainian democracy threatens Vladimir Putin, and Russia’s reasons for potentially escalating the conflict.
’s regime will launch a full-scale invasion. Eight years ago, Russia annexed Crimea after protests throughout Ukraine led to the fall of its Russia-backed President. Since then, Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine have engaged in protracted fighting that has killed some fourteen thousand people, while Ukrainian public opinion more broadly has moved closer to the West, despite Ukraine’s not being a member of the European Union or.
I would rather agree. Ukraine is democratic country, so there is an opposition that maybe thinks the government could be more upfront with the people, and give them guidelines, do it kind of like in Israel, where there is a strong civil-defense system and a clear plan for how people could go to the bunkers.
In 2019, when President [Volodymyr] Zelensky came to power, there was a kind of hope that there could be agreement between the new President and Vladimir Putin, so there was some movement. But, for the last year and a half, it’s just stalemate. Nothing is moving. The discussions on a prisoner exchange and things like that are not moving. In terms of the conflict, though, the last year and a half or two years were relatively calmer than the early years of the war.
But I have personally posed this question to a couple of the foreign diplomats who are dealing with the issue, saying, like, “Is there anything Ukraine could do more in negotiations with Russia?” And they said, “Not really, because the concessions were already from the Ukrainian side.” Of course, Ukraine wouldn’t make the major concessions of giving up Crimea or accepting the occupation of its eastern territories.
Can you talk about the role of Ukraine’s fight against corruption several years into Zelensky’s government and also the connection, if there is any, between eradicating corruption in Ukrainian society and Russian involvement? Yes. But I would probably say that, in this situation, it’s not enough to create a non-corrupt Ukraine. We also need a democratic Ukraine. Indeed, there would be more leverage for Russia, if the country was corrupt and undemocratic, to pressure some of its leaders. But a strong and resilient society that is not corrupt and is pluralistic—that’s definitely the best defense.
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