At its current pace, Medicare's Hospital Insurance trust fund will run out of money in 2028, according to the June 2022 Medicare trustees report .
There are several ways the government could handle the situation, from tweaking service coverage to redirecting revenues. Here are a few options:Some experts have suggested that the government could shift some post-acute services — such as physical therapy or nursing management after a hospital stay — from Part A to Part B.
“That makes the Part A trust fund look better, because you’ve taken some of the expenses off the books,” says Dr. Mark McClellan , the Robert J. Margolis professor of business, medicine and policy at Duke University, who holds a doctorate in economics. “But that’s not really changing the overall cost or sustainability of the program.
“The Senate bill includes an important modernization of Medicare’s drug benefit, to provide more comprehensive coverage for Medicare beneficiaries with high drug costs and to get Medicare’s drug plans to negotiate more aggressively with drug manufacturers,” McClellan says.In the short term, the government could reduce Medicare payments to some or all Part A providers, said Joseph Antos, senior fellow and Wilson H.
“Congress has done this before and can do it again, particularly if this is accompanied by some other adjustment that takes effect in year nine or 10 to give the money back,” said Antos in an email. For beneficiaries, the impact from this approach would be minimal, although it may reduce access to some providers or lead to some providers adding services that aren’t covered by Medicare to increase revenues, Antos explained.