Mali’s neighbouring countries share Western concerns about what the coup means for jihadist violence in the Sahel
MALIANS are no strangers to coups d’état. In 1991 the armed forces stepped in after sustained protests against Moussa Traoré, the dictator who had ruled the west African country since 1968. In March 2012 mutinous soldiers angry at the government’s handling of a rebellion in the north ousted the president, Amadou Toumani Touré.
For all the similarities the context is different from eight or 29 or 52 years ago. In the aftermath of the coup in 2012 Islamists took advantage of the political vacuum to launch attacks throughout the northern two-thirds of the country, prompting France to send in troops. Following its intervention, France, the African Union and ECOWAS, the regional bloc, backed a UN mission, called MINUSMA, to keep the peace while elections were held and a new political settlement reached.
An inept, out-of-touch government led by a southern elite has done little to stop escalating jihadist violence—and even less to deal with its root causes. In the first half of 2020 more than 1,800 people were killed in fights involving jihadists and ethnic militias, almost as many as were killed in 2019 . The presence of Western forces, 15,000 UN peacekeepers and an EU-led training mission has not stopped the bloodshed. Malian efforts to arm local militias have made matters worse.
It is unclear whether there was any co-ordination between the officers behind the coup and the groups leading the protests. A leader of the opposition M5-RFP movement told the BBC that the coup was a “relief”. The junta says it wants fresh elections. Mahmoud Dicko, an influential imam, could act as a kingmaker.
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