MEYERSDALE, Pennsylvania — Unless either Dr. Mehmet Oz or David McCormick pulls out a miracle between today and Tuesday evening, just over 20% of the Republican primary electorate is going to nominate Kathy Barnette for U.S. Senate.
This would mark the first time in modern Pennsylvania Republican primary history that such a complete unknown wins with no statewide infrastructure to support her candidacy, zero money, and little scrutiny. If she succeeds, she will have upended a race between two capable candidates who, up until a week ago, seemed to be locked in a two-man contest.
How did Specter win? The answer is twofold. First, there were his deep connections in rural counties like this one. This was where he doled out project money and called in all of his favors. The other thing that saved Specter that year was a robust Republican state party.However, it is not 2004 anymore. And this time, the insurgent is the one in the catbird seat. The once-venerated state Republican Party is a mere shadow of itself.
It is hard to find any pathway where either of them will win in November, even in the remarkable conditions available to Republican candidates right now. In other words, Kathy Barnette is not winning this race — they are losing it in classic murder-suicide fashion. One grassroots voter who admitted she would be happy with either Oz or McCormick said to me of some of her fellow Republicans, “No one cares about winning in the fall, they just want to win their little battles, they have a list of grievances they feel entitled to, and damn the torpedoes.”
Her other problem is that she is stubbornly blocking press access. That is a badge of honor for many Republican voters, but unvetted candidates have a way of self-destructing. Without scrutiny, voters have no idea what they are getting into, until it is too late.
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