What do these ups and downs mean for California’s next fire season? The answer is complicated.
The Caldor Fire burns in the Eldorado National Forest near Pollock Pines, Calif., on Aug. 17, 2021. What does recent weather mean for fire season? The answer is complicated. When rain pummeled California in October, many breathed a sigh of relief: At least in some parts of the state, the worst of the fire season, experts said, was most likely over.
“It has been both an unusually dry and an unusually wet winter,” said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, and the Nature Conservancy.Before October, a vast majority of California was considered to be in “exceptional” or “extreme” drought . So when meteorological conditions known as “atmospheric rivers” drenched parts of the state in October and December, much of that water was sucked up by the parched landscape.
Historically, California’s fire season lasted a few months during the hottest part of the year. But recently it has become more year-round. Although the extreme rainfall and dryness might average out to near-normal levels of precipitation, that is no insurance policy against fire, scientists say. As global temperatures warm, even in wet years, hot weather can ultimately dry out vegetation to produce droughtlike conditions.
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