The world is already perilously close to that target of “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and if possible 1.5°C
, including stronger storms and more unpredictable and extreme rainfall patterns, leading to deluges in some places and droughts in others. Even if global average temperature increases are stabilised at 1.5°C, that will still get worse. The annual probability of a heatwave—defined as four days with maximum temperatures above the 99th percentile of a normal warm season—in any given part of the world would rise from 5% to 28%.
And for many people, these changes have already happened. More than a fifth of the world’s population lives in areas where temperatures in the warmest seasons have already risen by more than 1.5°C . Around one-tenth of the globe averaged temperatures 2°C or more above pre-industrial levels between 2014 and 2018, including the Arctic, parts of the Middle East, Europe and northern Asia.
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