Presidential reelection bids tend to revolve around the incumbent’s performance in office. But a potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump could upend that dynamic, polling suggests, with most voters saying their decisions would come down largely to their feelings about Trump.
In the latest CNN poll, which finds registered voters deadlocked in a hypothetical contest between Biden and Trump, 62% of those backing Trump said they saw their choice mainly as a show of support for him, with a similar 64% of those backing Biden saying they viewed their choice largely as a vote against Trump. Only about a third on either side treated the decision as primarily a referendum on the sitting president.
Traditionally, midterm elections are often driven by a backlash against the party in power. Last year, however, that force was seemingly mitigated by voters’ discontent with GOP-driven policies like the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade. And even out of office and off the ballot, Trump himself played a significant role in driving opposition.
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