Why GOP senators are sticking with Pres. Trump—even though it might hurt them in November. Via FiveThirtyEight:
facing two candidates closely tied to Trump: Joe Arpaio and Kelli Ward. In this year’s race to defend the seat she was appointed to, McSally this week fended off a primary challenge from Daniel McCarthy, who tried to build support from local pro-Trump groups.
“More [congressional] members are running scared in the primaries,” political scientist Sarah Treul told me. “Even if they’re actually not having quality challengers emerging, they’re afraid of it happening. And I think a lot of them are spending time trying to figure out how [they] can ward off one of those challengers from even coming to the table.”Can Republicans still jump ship?
Now that primary season is coming to an end, will Republicans start separating themselves from Trump? Some probably don’t need to do so to win reelection. Despite his national unpopularity, senators in more Trump-leaning states, such as Ernst in Iowa and Daines in Montana, may be able to survive with a standard partisan vote.
But McSally, Collins, Gardner in Colorado and Tillis in North Carolina likely need to earn a substantial number of votes from Biden supporters to survive. It’s just not clear whether they will break with Trump in public ways or whether late breaks would be enough to help them win.option to rally both the Republican faithful and a few swing voters. It turns out some voters fear giving unified government to the president’s party and desire some.
So terrible Trump polls could be turned into something useful by Republican senators. They might eventually need to argue that, if Trump is going to lose, voters should trust them to serve as a check on the Democratic agenda.She would go on to lose the general election to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, but McSally was appointed to Arizona’sMatt Grossmann is director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and professor of political science at Michigan State University.
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