There's little doubt that Biden and Warren are the top tier in the Democratic primary fight. Besides Sanders, no one is even close to Biden and Warren. The question now is how likely are we to be looking at the potential nominee when focusing on the top 3
Poll of the week: A new Fox News poll of Democratic primary voters nationwide finds that 32% want former Vice President Joe Biden to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2020. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren comes in at 22%. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders stands at 17%. No one else polls better than 5%. An average of polls taken since the impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump began have Biden at 29%, Warren at 25%, Sanders at 15% and no one else above 5%.
Only three times has a candidate not in the top three at this point won a nomination. Those were George McGovern in 1972, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and John Kerry in 2004.Another way to look at this is to look at the percentage everyone was polling at. When the leader in the national polls in the second half of the year before the primary was at greater than 20% , there has been just one instance of someone polling below 15% going on to win the nomination: McGovern in 1972.
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