Why major study argues Florida’s COVID death rate compares favorably to California’s

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Why major study argues Florida’s COVID death rate compares favorably to California’s
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COVID-19 death rates were high in Florida and low in California, but adjusting to account for California’s younger, healthier and less vulnerable population reversed those results.

California officials boast that the state’s extended pandemic lockdowns and health mandates saved tens of thousands of lives from COVID-19, compared to states like Florida that reopened early.

“California was dealt an easier hand when it comes to COVID,” said lead author Joseph L. Dieleman, associate professor at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. “Its population is younger and healthier.”March 23 study the largest U.S. state-by-state analysis of COVID-19 impact

Although Florida’s older, unhealthier population contributed to its higher number of deaths, Dieleman said that doesn’t give Florida a pass, as the actual numbers are what count in the end. The Lancet study found that states’ use of mask and distancing mandates — a category in which California was among the country’s leaders — was linked with a meaningfully large reduction in cumulative infection rates, but not cumulative death rates. California had among the country’s lowest infection rates, even when figures were adjusted to account for differences in population density.

With an adjustment to show what it would look like if each state had the same age and health profile as the United States as a whole, Florida’s death rate jumped to 12th lowest, while California’s fell to 36th. That calculation included the proportion of each state’s residents over age 65 and under age 20, obesity and smoking rates and prevalence of diseases including asthma, cancer, heart disease and diabetes.

The study also found higher death rates linked to poverty, low education, larger Black and Hispanic populations, lower vaccination rates and lack of access to quality health care. Higher public health spending and more public health personnel didn’t decrease deaths.

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