Investors in the U.S. stock market will be closely watching Wednesday’s inflation report to help gauge the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate move.
Investors in the U.S. stock market will be closely watching Wednesday’s inflation report as it would be one of the last key data points before the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate move.
Employment data for March, released on Friday, indicated a resilient labor market, and was viewed as boosting the chances of another 25-basis-point rate hike next month. “The odds of a Fed rate hike have increased to 70% from around 50% before [Friday’s] jobs report,” he said, adding that unless there is a significant miss on the CPI, the Fed will boost its policy rate above 5% “because inflation remains too high.”
“This development may upset the equity market, as it has already priced in a Fed pause and rate cuts, given the recent rally since mid-March and the strong performance in the technology-heavy and interest rate-sensitive Nasdaq,” Kramer said in a Sunday note. “Markets are likely to continue pricing a high probability of rate cuts from the Fed later this year even with a strong CPI print, with cuts priced out only after a number of weeks of consistently solid activity and strong inflation data,” wrote Citi economists Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst, in a Monday note.
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