Why millions of Americans continue to move to areas exposed to high climate risks.
After enjoying the beaches, outdoor activities, and warm weather for a few months at a friend’s house in Florida during the pandemic, Josh Strange and his family eventually moved from Northern Virginia to the Sunshine state.
For instance, Fort Myers and Cape Coral in Florida suffered some of the biggest losses during last year’s Hurricane Ian—in part because of rapid development. Population in Lee County, where the two cities are located, has increased more than 600% since 1970, ahead of the nation’s 63% average. In the 12 months to July 2022, more than 30,000 new residents moved in, a 4% jump.
When choosing where to live, however, there are many factors to consider. “Just 10 years ago, climate wasn’t even on people’s radar,” says Jesse Keenan, associate professor of real estate and urban planning at Tulane University. “It is now, but it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s shaping major life decisions.”
Phoenix recently experienced one of its hottest summers ever as temperatures stayed above 110 degrees for over a month. The region’s water supply is also being squeezed, with its groundwater running low and the Colorado River drying up. The desire to be closer to nature was accelerated during the pandemic as people spent more time at home. “People continue to move to places where the environment—such as oceanfront—is considered an amenity,” says Timothy Judge, head of modeling and chief climate officer at Fannie Mae. “The problem is, it also puts you in some of the higher-risk areas.”
The areas where people move back quickly are often places where people don’t have other options. “A lot of people knowingly move to high-risk areas because it’s the cheapest place to live,” says Tulane’s Keenan. “They’re just doing the basics to survive.”
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