Tanzania boasts impressive GDP growth numbers. But its other indicators point in the opposite direction
cold war ended, much of Africa democratised and opened up. Few countries better embodied the feverish hope of the 1990s than Tanzania. It had suffered grievously in the 1960s and 1970s under its founding leader, Julius Nyerere. A nascent democracy was throttled by one-party rule. An economy with great potential was wrecked by “African socialism”. Some 11m peasants were forced into collective villages, where they went hungry.
Supporters of Mr Magufuli, who is running for re-election in October, argue that he gets things done—hence his nickname, the “bulldozer”. They also point to Tanzania’s startling record of economic growth. This has been running at close to 7% a year for the past decade. Tanzania has just crossed the World Bank’s threshold to become a middle-income country . Mr Magufuli boasts of achieving this goal five years earlier than planned.
using the Tanzanian central bank’s own numbers for the most recent full fiscal year available shows that tax revenue has shrunk in real terms. Discrepancies such as these, says Thorsten Beck of Cass Business School, are “red signals” thatPublic-sector wages and lending to the private sector, which had both been growing at well over 10% earlier in the decade, crept up by just 2% and 4% respectively .
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