“Pete has had the mojo lately, and Warren’s ground game is still very strong” in Iowa, Democratic strategists say—but “people think Biden can beat Trump”
is also very much in the hunt. And time is growing short: If a Senate impeachment trial burns up a significant part of January, this debate could be the final time the leading candidates for the Democratic nomination go directly at one another before the February 3 Iowa caucuses.
“Warren and Buttigieg are continuing to go after one another, and they’re getting into some nitpicking territory,” a top strategist for a former candidate says. “They aren’t going to be the beneficiaries of that fight. It’s going to be the other two at the top of this race, Bernie and Biden.” That’s partly because Biden is better in small, retail campaign appearances than he is in the high-profile settings that get disproportionate media weight, like debates. But it’s largely about the fear of Trump winning again. “We’ve never had a process election like this before. You do focus groups in Iowa, and real voters are talking about candidates’ RCP polling averages,” a senior strategist for a former candidate says. “They really want to beat Trump and they don’t want to fuck it up.
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