With just two weeks left to go before Canadians head to the polls, Quebec is living up to its reputation for wild, unpredictable races
the Conservatives since the first French debate. And Trudeau's province-wide numbers are inflated by urban Montreal, hiding far closer races elsewhere in the province.Outcomes in those wild four-party battles will decide the majority of Quebec’s 78 seats and, possibly, also the outcome of the Canadian election.
“It comes down to math,” the official said, speaking of Quebec. “And the fruit is ripe there.” He joked about the comparative stability of American elections, compared with Quebec’s: “What we call a ‘wave’, you call a ‘tsunami.’” Impossible, right? Well, it’s roughly what happened in Quebec in 1984, 1993, 2011 and 2015; four different parties transformed instantly into electoral behemoths.
She had so little expectation of winning that she wasn’t even watching the returns on election night, and spent the evening helping another campaign count ballots. She found out she was elected in a text message from a friend, one of nearly five-dozen NDPers elected from Quebec, elevating that party to Canada’s official opposition for the first time in its history.
“Federal politics in Quebec became less polarized. People considered it of secondary importance,” said Pierre Martin, a political-science professor at the University of Montreal. That’s a huge difference from a place, like the U.S., with a culture of strong partisan identity in which people vote a straight ticket from the White House down to the local mayor."If you’re a Democrat at the federal level, you’re probably a Democrat at the state level,” said Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data. “Those structural factors help explain why Quebec is so willing, at any given time, to vote for a completely different party.
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