Why Trump Could Have an Election Night Lead in Blue States

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Why Trump Could Have an Election Night Lead in Blue States
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Whether or not Trump clams victory based on convincing his supporters to vote on Election Day rather than by mail, the early returns may look weird.

A recurring nightmare for progressives? Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images It’s probably safe to say that a lot of progressive Americans look forward to Election Day 2020 in hopes of exorcising the demons that turned their worlds upside down on November 8, 2016. A year after that bizarre night, I was still not quite over it:

At the moment, in the wake of the 2020 RNC, Trump’s reelection prospects don’t look good. The Caligula-like excesses of his acceptance speech on the White House lawn on Thursday night feel more like a final desperate abuse of power than the beginning of another Electoral College coup. But unless the Biden-Trump race turns into a true rout, the likelihood of any Election Night catharsis for Democrats is quite low, for reasons some of us have been writing about for some time now.

Now comes Nathaniel Rakich with some fresh polling data on this possibility and what it might portend for those gazing at TV screens on the evening of November 3: It’s possible that Trump could even lead in New York State, his very blue former home state, on Election Night, especially given the state’s troubles in counting mail ballots after the June 23 primary.

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