Ukraine has struck another major blow against Russian military power and Vladimir Putin's credibility.
Launching U.K.-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles against Russia's Sevastopol-based Black Sea fleet in Crimea, Ukrainian forces severely damaged the Minsk landing ship and Rostov-on-Don Kilo-class attack submarine. Both ships were undergoing refits. Unverified satellite imagery appears to show catastrophic damage to both vessels, possibly of such a nature that it will be more affordable for Russia to scuttle the vessels than attempt to repair them.
In turn, this attack underlines a continuing divergence between U.S. and U.K. military strategy in supporting Ukraine. As I've reported, the U.K. adopts greater risk tolerance in deciding what weapons systems to provide Ukraine and where to allow Ukraine to use those weapons. The U.K. military also adopts surveillance flights far closer to Crimea than does the U.S. military. It is unlikely, for example, that the U.S.
For Putin, however, this attack is a big problem. While Ukraine's counteroffensive does not yet threaten to achieve its objective of dissecting Crimea from Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine, Russian land forces face escalating and systemic difficulties. Russian civilians in Crimea are not immune to these challenges: Putin's Kerch Bridge link from Crimea to the Russian mainland is subject to frequent closures due to Ukrainian threats of attack.
Top line: With his prized Black Sea assets now on fire, Putin doesn't look like the confident leader that his leadership narrative depends upon.
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