Most pundits see the 2024 presidential race as a battle between the current president and his immediate predecessor. They could be wrong.
While the next election is 33 months away , its contours are starting to emerge: People may want a new face as their next president. A recent Associated Press poll found that 70% of the electorate don’t want President Joe Biden to run in 2024. Good news for Republicans, you say? Not exactly. The poll also found that 72% don’t want former President Donald Trump to run, either.
A Republican would need to appeal to Trump voters without assuming the former president’s personal negatives or distracting obsessions — and expand the party’s base among swing voters. A Democrat would need to duplicate the hat trick pulled off by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair: holding most of his party’s base while breaking with its ideological excesses — and focusing on a new direction.
Biden’s support has sharply declined since his election, especially among all-important independents. A recent Fox News poll found that only 36% of voters would reelect him and 60% want someone else. A Politico/Morning Consult poll found that an unnamed Republican would defeat Biden by 9 percentage points. Of course, there is no such thing as an unnamed candidate. But even against the flesh-and-blood Trump, the current president would face a tough struggle.
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