With fates intertwined, Mexico and Pemex face downgrade risk in 2020

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With fates intertwined, Mexico and Pemex face downgrade risk in 2020
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Mexico threw troubled state oil company Pemex a lifeline in 2019 to stop $80 bil...

MEXICO CITY - Mexico threw troubled state oil company Pemex a lifeline in 2019 to stop $80 billion in bonds held by investors worldwide being labeled junk by credit rating agencies. Now, investors worry that the state itself is a risk for Pemex.

Economic growth has ground to a halt during Mexico’s first year under leftist President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, hitting income and sales tax receipts. Meanwhile, a fall in oil output has cut Pemex’s tax payout to the federal government. Rating agencies say Pemex’s needs and uncertainty over Lopez Obrador’s decision-making have hurt investor confidence - even as his spending cuts have helped improve market perceptions of the risk of a Mexican sovereign default.

Moody’s rates the company’s bonds one notch above junk. All three major agencies have Pemex’s bonds on negative outlook, and if two of them classify them as junk, many institutional investors would have to sell.

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