A rise in energy consumption by air conditioning will lead to increased emissions of carbon-dioxide and greenhouse gases such as hydrofluorocarbons, which are used as refrigerants in AC units and can leak into the atmosphere
that would otherwise be taken by heatstroke or the exacerbation of other health conditions—550,000 a year by 2050 in India alone—but it will disproportionately benefit those with higher incomes. Poorer people without AC are more likely to be less productive or to die than those who can afford it. Heat hinders learning and lowers test scores, causing poorer children to fall behind. And the use of AC itself contributes to global warming, making life even hotter for everyone.
The authors compiled household-level data on income and AC ownership from 16 countries, including America, China, India, Nigeria and Pakistan. They matched ownership with local climate data to create a model that tracks the adoption of AC against income levels. It found a sharp increase in ownership when annual household incomes exceed $10,000 annually.
Combining the model with forecasts of income levels and the climate over the next 30 years, they predicted that the percentage of households with air conditioning across the 16 countries would rise from an average of 35% in 2020 to 55% in 2050. The researchers forecast that rising incomes, not global warming, will account for 85% of the growth.
Finally, the paper analysed AC use by income groups in each of the 16 countries. In some countries, such as China, the gap in AC use between the richest and poorest households is projected to narrow as a larger number of low earners take home over $10,000 a year. But in countries such as Pakistan, Sierra Leone and South Africa, the gap in AC usage is predicted to widen. AC ownership is still rare in those countries. In Pakistan, for instance, 12% of the richest third of households and 0.
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