This is a concern as tropical forests may eventually start releasing more carbon into the atmosphere than they take out.
As they photosynthesize and grow, tropical forests remove enormous amounts of carbon from the atmosphere, reducing global warming. However, forests are also themselves affected by this warming. If it gets too hot or too dry, trees will grow less and may start to die faster, decomposing and releasing that carbon back into the atmosphere.
Such forests are found right across the tropics and although they're generally hot and wet, this simplification hides a lot of variation in climate. Some forests at the southern edge of the Amazon reach 35 degrees Celsius in the hottest months of the year, while others towards the foothills of the Andes reach no more than 26 degrees Celsius.
Looking at variations between different tropical forests gives us a unique perspective on how tropical forests might respond to future climatic conditions, as we can observe how forests grow in a particular climate after having had time to adapt. For example, we can use the difference in the amount of carbon stored by forests growing at 30 degrees Celsius and 32 degrees Celsius as a guide for how the former might respond over the long-term to a 2 degree Celsius increase in temperature.
We found that tropical forests can tolerate small changes in temperatures, but only up to a point. Once annual mean daytime temperatures in the warmest part of the year hit 32 degrees Celsius or more, these forests release four times as much carbon to the atmosphere per degree increase in temperature as they would below the threshold.
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